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NCIF forecasts average annual growth of 7% in 2021-2025

Released at: 15:13, 25/11/2019

NCIF forecasts average annual growth of 7% in 2021-2025

Photo: MPI

"Vietnam's Economic Perspectives for 2021-2025: Opportunities and Challenges from New Generation Free Trade Agreements" conference held in Hanoi.

by Minh Do

The National Center for Socio-economic Information and Forecasting (NCIF) predicted that Vietnam’s annual average GDP in the 2021-2025 period will be maintained at 7 per cent at the annual “Prospects for Vietnam’s Economy” international conference held on November 21 in Hanoi, with the participation of hundreds of scholars from Vietnam, Ireland, and elsewhere.

The theme of the conference was “Vietnam’s Economic Perspectives for 2021-2025: Opportunities and Challenges from New Generation Free Trade Agreements” and was organized by the NCIF and the Ministry of Planning and Investment in cooperation with the Irish Government’s Irish Aid.

Speaking at the opening of the conference, Dr. Tran Thi Hong Minh, General Director of the NCIF, said the conference is a good opportunity for the two countries to exchange experience and discuss ways to strengthen the effectiveness of their cooperation in promoting the development of analytical and foresight research.

She noted that Vietnam has integrated more deeply and broadly into the global economy and signed or is negotiations over a large number of bilateral and multilateral trade agreements. These agreements have shaped the present and future of Vietnam’s economic development. Two new generation free trade agreements (FTAs) Vietnam has signed recently, the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and the EU-Vietnam FTA (EVFTA), will have a significant impact on its economy in the years to come.

“Within the framework of cooperation between the NCIF and Trinity College Dublin and with support from Irish Aid, we have conducted research on economic outlooks, analyses, and forecasts, including projections for the upcoming period of 2021-2025,” Dr. Minh said. “We also assessed the potential impacts of new generation FTAs to manage and allay any negative effects they may have on Vietnam’s economy.”

 Dr. Tran Thi Hong Minh, NCIF General Director, addresses the conference. (Photo: NCIF)

In speaking about Vietnam’s economy in 2016-2020 and prospects for 2021-2025, Dr. Dang Duc Anh, Deputy General Director of the NCIF, said the economy posted many positive achievements in 2016-2020 but also contained many risks and limitations. Among the most notable achievements are maintaining high growth, stabilizing macroeconomics, and keeping inflation under control.

“GDP growth in the 2021-2025 period may reach 7 per cent on average, according to NCIF estimates based on the global economy and other factors affecting Vietnam’s economy,” Dr. Duc Anh told the gathering.

Professor John FitzGerald, a scholar at Trinity College Dublin who has worked closely with NCIF researchers on building economic forecasting methods that fit Vietnam’s economy, presented a paper on economic modeling and forecasting at the national and regional level. He said there are several aspects in the development of Vietnam’s economy that reflect the Irish development experience. He hoped that his experience in undertaking research on a very different economy will benefit the NCIF researchers.

Participants discussed the following subjects at the conference: Vietnam’s economic overview, development prospects, and economic forecast scenarios in the 2016-2020 and 2021-2025 periods; the impact of new FTAs, particularly the CTPPP and EVFTA, on Vietnam; and modeling and forecasting for Vietnam’s economy at the national and regional level.

The conference offered an opportunity for government officials, scientific researchers, and economic forecasting experts and scholars to have a broad-based exchange on how to select suitable economic forecasting models for Vietnam’s economy.

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