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Vietnam Today

IMF retains GDP forecast

Released at: 14:03, 15/10/2018

IMF retains GDP forecast

Photo: VGP

Latest forecast unchanged from April report.

by Doanh Doanh

The IMF’s most-recent forecast for Vietnam’s GDP in 2018 is 6.6 per cent and 6.5 per cent in 2019; unchanged from its outlook released in April, according to the Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific, launched on October 15 in Bali, Indonesia, as part of the IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings. The report also cites longer-term challenges for Asia’s growth prospects, which include slowing productivity, population aging, and the impact of the digital revolution on the future of work.

“Asia has achieved tremendous economic progress over the past few decades, with hundreds of millions of people lifted out of poverty and successive waves of economies transitioning to middle-income and even advanced-economy status,” said Mr. Changyong Rhee, Director of the IMF’s Asia and Pacific Department. “No doubt the region faces important challenges, but these can be addressed with smart policy making.”

On the sidelines of the annual meetings of the IMF-World Bank Group, Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc met Managing Director of the IMF Christine Lagarde. He welcomed the IMF’s positive evaluation of the country’s economic situation and prospects, proposing the IMF continue providing Vietnam with policy advice about economic restructuring, growth model reform, perfection of financial-banking systems, and the utilization of the Industry 4.0 in the financial sector.

During the meeting, the Prime Minister highlighted Vietnam’s socioeconomic achievements in 2018, in particular maintaining a sustainable macroeconomy, closely controlling inflation, promoting economic growth to 7 per cent, and recording a high trade surplus in the first nine months of 2018.

Ms. Lagarde suggested Vietnam continue boosting restructuring, increasing investment in education and healthcare, controlling public debt, accelerating fiscal consolidation, controlling exchange rates flexibly, and actively integrating into the world. The IMF will continue assisting Vietnam to keep macroeconomic stability and bolster its economic growth to achieve sustainable and inclusive development goals.

According to the report, Asia continues to drive the global economy, with growth forecast at 5.6 per cent this year and 5.4 per cent in 2019. But there are risks ahead, brought on by tighter financial conditions, rising trade tensions, and slowing momentum in China.

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