Photo: Viet Tuan
Vietnam is predicted to be ranked second fastest-growing market in the region.
International outbound trips by Vietnamese residents were estimated at 4.8 million in 2016, and are forecast to grow by an average of 9.5 percent per year (2nd highest growth rate after Myanmar at 10.6 percent) to reach 7.5 million trips by 2021, according to the MasterCard Future of Outbound Travel in Asia Pacific (2016 to 2021) Report.
Accordingly, total outbound travel will grow much faster than household growth (9.5 percent versus 0.9 percent) over the forecast period resulting in a ratio of outbound trips-to-households that is projected to reach 34.7 percent in 2021 from 23.2 percent in 2016.
About 48.0 percent of outbound trips were made by Vietnamese households that earned above $30,000 per annum in 2016, an income range that accounts for 16.5 percent of all households. This puts the concentration ratio at 2.9.
Lower-income households that earned less than $10,000 have a concentration ratio of 0.2 while middle-income households that range from $10,000 to $30,000 have a ratio of 1.0.
Projecting forward to 2021, outbound travel growth will mostly come from households earning $10,000 to $30,000 as they increase their share of outbound travel from 48.0 percent in 2016 to 57.2 percent in 2021. This will be due to the increase in the number of households at this income range (from 16.5 percent of total households in 2016 to 26.2 percent in 2021).
The report predicts that the top 10 fastest-growing Asia Pacific markets for international outbound trips (compound annual growth rate from 2016 to 2021) will be:
1. Myanmar, 10.6 per cent
2. Vietnam, 9.5 per cent
3. Indonesia, 8.6 per cent
4. China, 8.5 per cent
5. India, 8.2 per cent
6. Sri Lanka, 6.1 per cent
7. Thailand, 4.8 per cent
8. Philippines, 4.4 per cent
9. South Korea, 3.8 per cent
10. Australia/Singapore/Malaysia, 3.5 per cent
According to the study, outbound travel will grow faster than the real GDP. Outbound travel growth tends to be higher than real GDP growth for emerging markets compared to developed markets, except for Japan, where outbound travel growth is much closer to its predicted real GDP growth.
By 2021, all developed markets in Asia Pacific, except Japan, will have a ratio of more than 100 per cent for outbound travel trips to the total number of households. Households in Singapore (693.6 per cent), Hong Kong (248.9 per cent) and Taiwan (232 per cent) have the highest propensity to travel abroad.